1- Assistant Professor , khanzadi@iust.ac.ir
2- Assistant Professor
3- M.Sc student
Abstract: (7112 Views)
Allocation of construction risks between clients and their contractors has a significant impact on the total construction costs. This paper presents a system dynamics (SD)-based approach for quantitative risk allocation. Using the proposed SD based approach, all the factors affecting the risk allocation process are modeled. The contractor’s defensive strategies against the one-sided risk allocation are simulated using governing feedback loops. The full-impact of different risk allocation strategies may efficiently be modeled, simulated and quantified in terms of time and cost by the proposed object-oriented simulation methodology. The project cost is simulated at different percentages of risk allocation and the optimum percentage of risk allocation is determined as a point in which the project cost is minimized. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method, it has been implemented in a pipe-line project. The optimal risk allocation strategy is determined for the inflation risk as one of the most important identified risks.
Type of Study:
Research |
Subject:
Simulation & Stochastic Models Received: 2011/09/10 | Accepted: 2013/09/28 | Published: 2013/09/28