International Journal of Civil Engineering

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Showing 3 results for Nasirzadeh

System dynamics approach for construction risk analysis

Farnad Nasirzadeh, Abbas Afshar, Mostafa Khanzadi,
Volume 6, Issue 2 (June 2008)

Abstract

Presence of risks and uncertainties inherent in project development and implementation plays

significant role in poor project performance. Thus, there is a considerable need to have an effective risk

analysis approach in order to assess the impact of different risks on the project objectives. A powerful risk

analysis approach may consider dynamic nature of risks throughout the life cycle of the project, as well as

accounting for feedback loops affecting the overall risk impacts. This paper presents a new approach to

construction risk analysis in which these major influences are considered and quantified explicitly. The

proposed methodology is a system dynamics based approach in which different risks may efficiently be

modeled, simulated and quantified in terms of time, cost and quality by the use of the implemented object

oriented simulation methodology. To evaluate the performance of the proposed methodology it has been

employed in a bridge construction project. Due to the space limitations, the modeling and quantification

process for one of the identified risks namely “pressure to crash project duration” is explained in detail.

Modeling quality management in construction projects

F. Nasirzadeh, M. Khanzadi, A. Afshar, S. Howick,
Volume 11, Issue 1 (TransactionA: Civil Engineering, March 2013)

Abstract

This research presents a dynamic mathematical system for modeling and simulating the quality management process in construction projects. Through sets of cause and effect feedback loops, all factors that internally and externally affect the quality management process are addressed. The proposed system integrates fuzzy logic with system dynamics simulation scheme to consider the uncertainties associated with the model parameters and estimation of the extra cost and time due to quality defects. Quantification of the consequences of the quality failures is performed based on the α-cut representation of fuzzy numbers and interval analysis. The proposed approach is efficient in modeling and analyzing a quality management process which is complex and dynamic in nature and involves various uncertainties. The proposed approach is implemented in a real submarine water supply pipe line project in order to evaluate its applicability and performance. The negative impacts resulting from quality failures are simulated. These negative impacts are mitigated by the implementation of alternative solutions.

Quantitative risk allocation using cooperative-bargaining game theory

Farnad Nasirzadeh, Hamed Mazandaranizadeh, Mehdi Rouhparvar,
Volume 14, Issue 3 (Transaction A: Civil Engineering 2016)

Abstract

Risk allocation is the definition and division of responsibility associated with a possible future loss or gain arising from an identified risk. Quantitative approaches to risk allocation have been developed to overcome the limitations of qualitative approaches, especially the issue of the amount of risk to be borne by each party. This paper presents a cooperative-bargaining game model for quantitative risk allocation that extends the previous existing system dynamics SD-based model. The behavior of contracting parties in the quantitative risk allocation process is modeled as the players’ behavior in a game. The proposed model accounts for both the client costs and the contractor costs to perform the quantitative risk allocation process. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, it has been employed in a pipeline project. Quantitative risk allocation is performed for the inflation as one of the most important identified risks. It is shown that using the proposed cooperative-bargaining game model, both the client and contractor costs are decreased in comparison to the previous SD-based risk allocation approach.

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