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Showing 2 results for Quantitative Risk Allocation

Mostafa Khanzadi, Farnad Nasirzadeh, Mahdi Rezaie,
Volume 24, Issue 3 (9-2013)
Abstract

Allocation of construction risks between clients and their contractors has a significant impact on the total construction costs. This paper presents a system dynamics (SD)-based approach for quantitative risk allocation. Using the proposed SD based approach, all the factors affecting the risk allocation process are modeled. The contractor’s defensive strategies against the one-sided risk allocation are simulated using governing feedback loops. The full-impact of different risk allocation strategies may efficiently be modeled, simulated and quantified in terms of time and cost by the proposed object-oriented simulation methodology. The project cost is simulated at different percentages of risk allocation and the optimum percentage of risk allocation is determined as a point in which the project cost is minimized. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method, it has been implemented in a pipe-line project. The optimal risk allocation strategy is determined for the inflation risk as one of the most important identified risks.
Mahdi Ruhparvar, Hamed Mazandarani Zadeh, Farnad Nasirzadeh,
Volume 25, Issue 2 (5-2014)
Abstract

An equitable risk allocation between contracting parties plays a vital role in enhancing the performance of the project. This research presents a new quantitative risk allocation approach by integrating fuzzy logic and bargaining game theory. Owing to the imprecise and uncertain nature of players’ payoffs at different risk allocation strategies, fuzzy logic is implemented to determine the value of players’ payoffs based on the experience and subjective judgment of experts involved in the project. Having determined the players' payoffs, bargaining game theory is then applied to find the equitable risk allocation between the client and contractor. Four different methods including symmetric Nash, non-symmetric Nash, non-symmetric Kalai–Smorodinsky and non-symmetric area monotonic are implemented to determine the equitable risk allocation. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, it is implemented in a pipeline project and the quantitative risk allocation is performed for the inflation risk as one of the most significant identified risks.

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