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Showing 8 results for Subject: Decision Analysis and Methods

Farnad Nasirzadeh, Hamid Reza Maleki, Mostafa Khanzadi, Hojjat Mianabadi,
Volume 24, Issue 1 (2-2013)
Abstract

Implementation of the risk management concepts into construction practice may enhance the performance of project by taking appropriate response actions against identified risks. This research proposes a multi-criteria group decision making approach for the evaluation of different alternative response scenarios. To take into account the uncertainties inherent in evaluation process, fuzzy logic is integrated into the revaluation process. To evaluate alternative response scenarios, first the collective group weight of each criterion is calculated considering opinions of a group consisted of five experts. As each expert has its own ideas, attitudes, knowledge and personalities, different experts will give their preferences in different ways. Fuzzy preference relations are used to unify the opinions of different experts. After computation of collective weights, the best alternative response scenario is selected by the use of proposed fuzzy group decision making methodology which aggregates opinions of different experts. To evaluate the performance of the proposed methodology, it is implemented in a real project and the best alternative responses scenario is selected for one of the identified risks.
Yahia Zare Mehrjerdi,
Volume 24, Issue 3 (9-2013)
Abstract

Abstract Purpose of this paper: The objectives of this paper are two folds: (1) utilizing hierarchical fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) approach to evaluate the most suitable RFID-based systems decision, and (2) to highlight key risks and benefits of radio frequency identification technology in healthcare industry. Design/methodology/approach: Researcher explains the importance of selection criteria for evaluation of RFID-based system. It provides key elements on radio frequency identification, fuzzy hierarchical TOPSIS methodology and an algorithm that can be followed to solve the problem. A sample problem using the algorithm is solved and results are explained. Findings: The hierarchical TOPSIS model used in this article is able to grasp the ambiguity exists in the utilized information and the fuzziness appears in the human judgments and preferences. The use of the hierarchical fuzzy TOPSIS methodology offers a number of benefits: (1) it is a systematic model and straight forward to work on (2) capable to capture the human's appraisal of ambiguity when management should deal with a complex multiple objective situations. The hierarchical fuzzy TOPSIS is in some way superior to the other Fuzzy multi criterion decision making techniques, such as fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and classical fuzzy TOPSIS methods. This is because while in the hierarchical structure no pair-wise comparisons among criteria, sub-criteria, and alternatives are necessary to be made, it is already being taken into consideration by the model. Hierarchical fuzzy. Practical implications (if applicable): What is original/value of paper: Due to the fact that a better management of health care system is related to the full understanding of the technologies implemented and the system under consideration, sufficient background on the radio frequency identification technology is provided and the RFID systems most likely management would face with and select one are provided for decisions to be made on them. Key Words: RFID Technology, RFID-based system selection, healthcare applications, hierarchical fuzzy TOPSIS.
Mahdi Ruhparvar, Hamed Mazandarani Zadeh, Farnad Nasirzadeh,
Volume 25, Issue 2 (5-2014)
Abstract

An equitable risk allocation between contracting parties plays a vital role in enhancing the performance of the project. This research presents a new quantitative risk allocation approach by integrating fuzzy logic and bargaining game theory. Owing to the imprecise and uncertain nature of players’ payoffs at different risk allocation strategies, fuzzy logic is implemented to determine the value of players’ payoffs based on the experience and subjective judgment of experts involved in the project. Having determined the players' payoffs, bargaining game theory is then applied to find the equitable risk allocation between the client and contractor. Four different methods including symmetric Nash, non-symmetric Nash, non-symmetric Kalai–Smorodinsky and non-symmetric area monotonic are implemented to determine the equitable risk allocation. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, it is implemented in a pipeline project and the quantitative risk allocation is performed for the inflation risk as one of the most significant identified risks.
Mahdi Karbasian, Mohammad Farahmand, Mohammad Ziaei,
Volume 26, Issue 2 (7-2015)
Abstract

This research aims at presenting a consolidated model of data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique and value engineering to select the best manufacturing methods for gate valve covers and ranking the methods using TOPSIS.To do so, efficiency evaluation indices were selected based on the value engineering approach and different manufacturing methods were evaluated using DEA technique.Finally, effective methods were ranked based on TOPSIS. Accordingly, 48 different methods were identified for manufacturing the part. The DEA results showed that only 12 methods have complete efficiency. Meanwhile manufacturing method No. 32 (A216 WCB casting purchased from Chinese market as the raw material, machining by CNC+NC and drilling by radial drill) was ranked the first.Major limitations of the research include time limitations, place limitation, lack of access to the standards adaptability index in different machining and drilling methods, limitation on evaluating all parts of a product, limitation on a technique evaluating efficiency and ranking, and mere satisfying with superior indices in each factor of value engineering. Most previous studies only evaluated efficiency of manufacturing methods based on a single approach.By applying value engineering, which is in fact a combination of three approaches (including quality approach, functional, and cost approaches), the present research provided a far more comprehensive model to evaluate manufacturing methods in industrial.

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Dr Akbar Esfahanipour, Mr Hamed Davari Ardakani,
Volume 26, Issue 4 (11-2015)
Abstract

In today’s competitive business situation, performance evaluation of firms is an extremely important concern of all the people who are typically stakeholders of the business game. In case of holding companies, this is a more important issue since the parent firm must permanently control the situation of its subsidiaries in their sectors to make appropriate investment decisions. This paper develops a multicriteria decision making (MCDM) approach for evaluating performance of firms considering financial and productivity criteria.. We adopt Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) method to determine the relative importance of evaluation criteria, taking the vagueness and imprecision of human judgments into consideration. Then, we employ the Preference Ranking Organization METHod for Enrichment Evaluation (PROMETHEE) for ranking of firms. Afterward, this paper enjoys benefit of using Technique of Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to assess the validity of the obtained ranking results. Our approach was applied to a holding company listed in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) as a real case. The analysis of ranking results revealed advantages of combining these MCDM methods.

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Dr. Mustafa Jahnagoshai Rezaee, Dr. Alireza Moini,
Volume 26, Issue 4 (11-2015)
Abstract

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) and balanced scorecard (BSC) are two well-known approaches for measuring performance of decision making units (DMUs). BSC is especially applied with quality measures, whereas, when the quantity measures are used to evaluate, DEA is more appropriate. In the real-world, DMUs usually have complex structures such as network structures. One of the well-known network structures is two-stage processes with intermediate measures. In this structure, there are two stages and each stage uses inputs to produce outputs separately where the first stage outputs are inputs for the second stage. This paper deals with integrated DEA and game theory approaches for evaluating two-stage processes. In addition, it is an extension of DEA model based on BSC perspectives. BSC is used to categorize the efficiency measures under two-stage process. Furthermore, we propose a two-stage DEA model with considering leader-follower structure and including multiple sub stages in the follower stage. To determine importance of each category of measures in a competitive environment, cooperative and non-cooperative game approaches are used. A case study for measuring performance of power plants in Iran is presented to show the abilities of the proposed approach.

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Mostafa Ekhtiari, Mostafa Zandieh, Akbar Alem-Tabriz, Masood Rabieh,
Volume 29, Issue 1 (3-2018)
Abstract

Supplier selection is one of the influential decisions for effectiveness of purchasing and manufacturing policies under competitive conditions of the market. Regarding the fact that decision makers (DMs) consider conflicting criteria for selecting suppliers, multiple-criteria programming is a promising approach to solve the problem. This paper develops a nadir compromise programming (NCP) model for decision-making under uncertainty on the selection of suppliers within the framework of binary programming. Depending on the condition of uncertainty, three statuses are taken into consideration and a solution approach is proposed for each status. A pure deterministic NCP model is presented for solving the problem in white condition (certainty of data) and a solution approach resulted from combination of NCP and stochastic programming is introduced to solve the model in black (uncertainty of data) situation. The paper also proposes a NCP model under certainty and uncertainty for solving problem under grey (a combination of certainty and uncertainty of data) conditions. The proposed approaches are illustrated for a real problem in steel industry with multiple objectives. Also, a simulation approach has been designed in order to examine the results obtained and also verifies capabilities of the proposed model.


Zahra Touni, Ahmad Makui, Emran Mohammadi,
Volume 30, Issue 1 (3-2019)
Abstract

Financial decision-making is the principal part of any decisions hence great efforts are done to improve the methods to assess and analyze the stock in financial markets as a part of the financial decision. This paper addresses the stock selection by discovering investor's utility function .Investors in the Stock Exchange consider diverse criteria to buy shares and bonds. Due to the criteria development in stock selection, understanding the investor's behavior by a consultant is a prominent issue. Recognizing an exclusive utility function according to the characteristics of the investors facilitates acquiring each share's value for the decision maker (DM) when it is required. In this study, UTASTAR method is used to estimate the marginal value function, using 3 appropriate criteria (risk, return, liquidity) and finally fit out the total utility function. It provides the opportunity to make a rational decision fit to investor's mentality and allowing their ranking, prioritization, selection or classification. The ranking of the options is as compatible as possible to the original one. The method is applied to an example from Iran Stock Exchange.



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