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Showing 2 results for Dynamic System

Jalali M.r., Afshar A., Mokhtare A.r.,
Volume 2, Issue 4 (12-2004)
Abstract

It is indispensable to explore simulation techniques that not only represent complexdynamic systems in a realistic way but also allow the involvement of end users in modeldevelopment to increase their confidence in the modeling process. System dynamics as a feedbackbasedand object-oriented simulation approach is presented for reservoir operation modeling. Thequick modeling process, the trust developed in the model due to user contribution, group modelsdevelopment possibility and the effective relations of model results are the most significant strongpoints of this approach. The simple modification of model in response to changes in system andcapability to accomplish sensitivity analysis make this approach more attractive and useful ratherthan traditional reservoir operation models. In this paper system dynamics is applied to simulateoperation of a free reservoir with an Ogee spillway, a reservoir with a gated spillway and finally amulti-reservoir system with simple and gated spillways. The multi-reservoir system on Karun riverin south of Iran is modeled under flood condition as a case study in order to demonstrate thecapabilities of the developed model.
M.h. Sebt, A. Gerei, H. Naghash Toosi,
Volume 7, Issue 3 (9-2009)
Abstract

Risks mean cases of uncertainty of project, the impact of which is realized as a threat (negative aspect) and/or opportunity (positive aspect). The traditional viewpoint on risk is a negative viewpoint that implies damages, loss and harmful consequences. Judgments such as this on risk merely emphasize on risks management and pay less attention to opportunities management. It is clear that some uncertainties might be profitable for the project as in many cases, it could be the source of loss. In a developed attitude, focus is made on a common process that could address the integrated management of both opportunities and risks to aim at maximizing the positive effectsopportunities-, and minimizing negative effects- risks-. Therefore, existence of causal-effect relations between risks, relationship, effects of risks and opportunities on each other and variety of strategies in facing risks gives no alternative for risk management team than taking integrated management of risks and opportunities. In another word, reaction to risks, with respect to risks and/or relevant opportunities, separately, will be never effective. In this paper, for the purpose of integrated management of risks and opportunities, the stages of quality analysis and reactions to risk are combined. The method which is used for reaction towards risk is a procedure based on dynamic system. Dynamic system is highly important among uncertainties due to considering the type and intensity of effects. By using dynamic system and attention to the relationship between uncertainties (risks/ opportunities), reaction to risk and decision making on employing suitable strategies to face risks will be more precise and accurate.

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