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Showing 15 results for Reliability

Ghodrati Amiri G., Sedighi S.,
Volume 2, Issue 4 (12-2004)

In the past decade design procedure changed to �performance-based design� from�force-based design�, by this mean many researchers focused on nonlinear static analysis (NSA)and the procedure named �PUSHOVER�. Advantages of this method are defining the inelasticbehavior of structure without nonlinear dynamic analysis (NDA) effort and also defining plastichinges formation in critical elements, and the order of formed plastic hinges. In spite of these goodadvantages NSA is limited to short and planar structures and application of that in tall andtorsionaly asymmetric structures may yield unreliable results.In this study reliability of NSA is investigated by performing both nonlinear static and dynamicanalysis on six 2D moment resisting concrete frames. Non linear dynamic analysis has been doneby the suggested method in FEMA356 guideline called �Target Displacement Method�. A groupof 4 different lateral increasing loads were used in pushover analysis and 3 different groundmotions were applied in NDA. Results indicate that same responses can be obtained by performingNSA, but errors will be increased by frames height increment.
J. Sadeghi, P. Barati,
Volume 8, Issue 1 (3-2010)

Current practices in railway track analysis and design are reviewed and discussed in this paper. The

mechanical behavior of railway track structure comprising of various components has not been fully understood due

to the railway track structural complexity. Although there have been some improvements in the accuracy of current

track design methods in recent decades, there are still considerable uncertainties concerning the accuracy and

reliability of the current methods. This indicates a need for a thorough review and discussion on the current practices

in the analysis and design of railway track systems. In this paper, railway design approaches proposed by various

standards along with the results of a wide range of technical researches are studied and necessary suggestions are

made for the improvement of current practices in the analysis and design of railway track

Sung-Hoon An, Hunhee Cho, Ung-Kyun Lee,
Volume 9, Issue 1 (3-2011)

In the early stages of a construction project, the reliability and accuracy of conceptual cost estimates are major concerns for clients and cost engineers. Previous studies applied scoring methods and established common rules or mathematical methods to assess the quality of cost estimates. However, those approaches have some limitations in adapting to real-world projects or require understanding of sophisticated statistical techniques. We propose a Conceptual Cost Estimate Reliability Index (CCERI), a simple, easy-to-use, and easy-to-understand tool that incorporates weights for 20 factors influencing the quality of conceptual cost estimates. The weights were obtained by eliciting experts’ experience and knowledge. Cost data from 71 building projects were used in the analysis and validation of the CCERI. The analysis reveals that a conceptual cost estimate with a CCERI score of less than 3000 has a high probability of exceeding 10% error, and such conceptual cost estimates are unlikely to be reliable. With the CCERI score, a decision maker or a client can recognize the reliability of the conceptual cost estimates and the score can thus support decision making using conceptual cost estimates. In addition, with the CCERI and the relative importance weights of factors affecting the conceptual cost estimates, the estimator can find ways to modify a conceptual cost estimate and reestimate it. These alternatives can decrease the risk in the conceptual estimated cost and assist in the successful management of a construction project.
A. R. Shokoohi, B. Saghafian,
Volume 10, Issue 1 (3-2012)

In almost all of the present mathematical models, the upstream subbasins, with overland flow as the dominant type of flow, are

simulated as a rectangular plane. However, the converging plane is the closest shape to an actual upstream subbasin. The

intricate nature of the governing equations of the overland flow on a converging plane is the cause of prolonged absence of an

analytical or semi analytical solution to define the rising limb of the resulted hydrograph. In the present research, a new

geomorphologic semi analytical method was developed that tries to establish a relationship between the parallel and converging

flows to reduce the complexity of the equations. The proposed method uses the principals of the Time Area method modified to

apply the kinematic wave theory and then by applying a correction factor finds the actual discharge. The correction factor, which

is based on the proportion of the effective drained area to the analytically calculated one, introduces the convergence effect of

the flow in reducing the potentially available discharge in a parallel flow. The proposed method was applied to a case study and

the result was compared with that of Woolhiser's numerical method that showed the reliability of the new method.

A. Shariat Mohaymany, M. Babaei,
Volume 11, Issue 1 (3-2013)

Since the 1990’s, network reliability has been considered as a new index for evaluating transportation networks under uncertainty. A large number of studies have been revealed in the literature in this field, which are mostly dedicated to developing relevant measures that can be utilized for the evaluation of vulnerable networks under different sources of uncertainty, such as daily traffic flow fluctuations, natural disasters, weather conditions, and so fourth. This paper addresses the resource allocation problem in vulnerable transportation networks, in which multiple performance reliability measures should be met at their desired levels, while the overall cost of upgrading links’ performances should be minimized simultaneously. For this purpose, a new approach has been considered to formulate the two well-known performance measures, connectivity and capacity reliability, along with their application in a bi-objective nonlinear mixed integer goal programming model. In order to take into account the uncertain conditions of supply, links’ capacities have been assumed to be random variables and follow normal distribution functions. A computationally efficient method has been developed that allows calculating the network-wise performance indices simply by means of a set of functions of links’ performance reliabilities. Using this approach, as the performance reliability of links are themselves functions of the random links’ capacities, they can be simply calculated through numerical integration. To achieve desirable levels for both connectivity reliability and capacity reliability (as network-wise performance reliability measures) two distinct objectives have been considered. One of the objectives seeks to maximize each of the measures regardless of what is happening to the other objective function which minimizes the budget. Since optimization models with two conflicting objectives cannot be solved directly, the well-known goal attainment multi-objective decision-making (MODM) approach has been adapted to formulate the model as a single objective model. Then the resultant single objective model has been solved through the generalized gradient method, which is a straightforward solution algorithm coded in existing commercial software such as MATLAB programming software. To show the applicability of the proposed model, numerical results are provided for a simple network. Also, to show the sensitiveness of the model to decision maker’s direction weights, the results of sensitivity analysis are presented..
I. Hosseinzadeh Attar, K. Fakharian,
Volume 11, Issue 2 (11-2013)

Pile foundations are frequently used in industrial projects in southwest lowlands of Iran. Although high setup of shaft resistance

is usually reported in the area, no reliable formulation or guidelines are available for considering the increased capacity in design

applications. Therefore, the pile design practices are usually not optimized. The main objective of this paper is presenting a site

specific formulation for setup effects of a utility plant in southwest Iran in which a good database of prestressed concrete driven

piles is available. Fajr-II Petrochemical site in PetZone of Mahshahr accommodating a utility plant is selected as the database of

the current study. The setup factor (A) and the reference time (t0) are evaluated through processing of a relatively large database

of this well-supervised piling project. As the main portion of variations of driven piles capacity with time is related to shaft, only

shaft resistance variations are considered in this research. The shaft capacity variations are derived from signal matching analysis

on PDA tests. Reliability of PDA tests has been confirmed through comparing with the static load test results. Influence of driving

the surrounding piles on setup factor is also investigated. The results show that the average setup factor (A) and the reference time

(t0) of 0.30 and 0.01 day, respectively, are proper values for estimating the long term capacity in this region. Evaluation of the

results indicates that driving 8 piles around the test pile has increased the “A” factor average of 40% resultingin increase of the

shaft capacity about 19% in one month and 22% in one year, in comparison with the tested piles with no surrounding piles driven.

S. Soudmand, M. Ghatee, S. M. Hashemi,
Volume 11, Issue 4 (12-2013)

This paper proposes a new hybrid method namely SA-IP including simulated annealing and interior point algorithms to find the optimal toll prices based on level of service (LOS) in order to maximize the mobility in urban network. By considering six fuzzy LOS for flows, the tolls of congested links can be derived by a bi-level fuzzy programming problem. The objective function of the upper level problem is to minimize the difference between current LOS and desired LOS of links. In this level, to find optimal toll, a simulated annealing algorithm is used. The lower level problem is a fuzzy flow estimator model with fuzzy link costs. Applying a famous defuzzification function, a real-valued multi-commodity flow problem can be obtained. Then a polynomial time interior point algorithm is proposed to find the optimal solution regarding to the estimated flows. In pricing process, by imposing cost on some links with LOS F or E, users incline to use other links with better LOS and less cost. During the iteration of SA algorithm, the LOS of a lot of links gradually closes to their desired values and so the algorithm decreases the number of links with LOS worse than desirable LOS. Sioux Falls network is considered to illustrate the performance of SA-IP method on congestion pricing based on different LOS. In this pilot, after toll pricing, the number of links with LOS D, E and F are reduced and LOS of a great number of links becomes C. Also the value of objective function improves 65.97% after toll pricing process. It is shown optimal toll for considerable network is 5 dollar and by imposing higher toll, objective function will be worse.
A. Gholizad, P. Kamrani Moghaddam,
Volume 12, Issue 1 (3-2014)

High performance and reliability of refurbish able knee braced steel frames has been confirmed in previous researches trying to get an optimal design for its configuration. Buckling of diagonal member which affects the hysteretic behavior of KBF under cyclic loadings has not been foreseen in previous evaluations of this system. This deficiency can be improved by utilization of adjustable rotary friction damper device (FDD) as knee element. Diagonal element buckling can be prevented considering a suitable value for FDD sliding threshold moment Mf. Lower values of Mf Lower energy dissipation rate in FDD and this leads to an optimization problem. Nonlinear time history analyses have been performed in addition to lateral cyclic loading analyses to evaluate the response of single story KBF subjected to seismic excitation. Optimal Mf in FDD has been chosen according to these analyses results. Roof displacement and acceleration, base shear and diagonal element’s buckling status have been compared in optimally designed KBF and FDD utilized KBF (FKBF) with different configurations. Nonlinear dynamic analyses have been performed for one, four, eight and twelve story frames under different seismic records with several PGAs. More than 60% displacement response reduction has been earned for the FKBF without considerable increase in base shear.
A. Kaveh, A. Nasrolahi,
Volume 12, Issue 1 (3-2014)

In this paper, a new enhanced version of the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is presented. An important modification is made by adding probabilistic functions into PSO, and it is named Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization (PPSO). Since the variation of the velocity of particles in PSO constitutes its search engine, it should provide two phases of optimization process which are: exploration and exploitation. However, this aim is unachievable due to the lack of balanced particles’ velocity formula in the PSO. The main feature presented in the study is the introduction of a probabilistic scheme for updating the velocity of each particle. The Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization (PPSO) formulation thus developed allows us to find the best sequence of the exploration and exploitation phases entailed by the optimization search process. The validity of the present approach is demonstrated by solving three classical sizing optimization problems of spatial truss structures.
J. Nazari Afshar, M. Ghazavi,
Volume 12, Issue 1 (1-2014)

The Stone-column is a useful method for increasing the bearing capacity and reducing settlement of foundation soil. The prediction of accurate ultimate bearing capacity of stone columns is very important in soil improvement techniques. Bulging failure mechanism usually controls the failure mechanism. In this paper, an imaginary retaining wall is used such that it stretches vertically from the stone column edge. A simple analytical method is introduced for estimation of the ultimate bearing capacity of the stone column using Coulomb lateral earth pressure theory. Presented method needs conventional Mohr-coloumb shear strength parameters of the stone column material and the native soil for estimation the ultimate bearing capacity of stone column. The validity of the developed method has been verified using finite element method and test data. Parametric studies have been carried out and effects of contributing parameters such as stone column diameter, column spacing, and the internal friction angle of the stone column material on the ultimate bearing capacity have been investigated.
A. Eslami, I. Tajvidi, M. Karimpour-Fard,
Volume 12, Issue 1 (1-2014)

Three common approaches to determine the axial pile capacity based on static analysis and in-situ tests are presented, compared and evaluated. The Unified Pile Design (UPD), American Petroleum Institute (API) and a SPT based methods were chosen to be validated. The API is a common method to estimate the axial bearing capacity of piles in marine environments, where as the others are currently used by geotechnical engineers. Seventy pile load test records performed in the northern bank of Persian Gulf with SPT profile have been compiled for methods evaluation. In all cases, pile capacities were measured using full scale static compression and/or pull out loading tests. As the loading tests in some cases were in the format of proof test without reaching the plunging or ultimate bearing capacity, for interpretation the results, offset limit load criteria was employed. Three statistical and probability based approaches in the form of a systematic ranking, called Rank Index, RI, were utilized to evaluate the performance of predictive methods. Wasted Capacity Index (WCI) concept was also applied to validate the efficiency of current methods. The evaluations revealed that among these three predictive methods, the UPD is more accurate and cost effective than the others.
H. Shahnazari, M. A. Shahin, M. A. Tutunchian,
Volume 12, Issue 1 (1-2014)

Due to the heterogeneous nature of granular soils and the involvement of many effective parameters in the geotechnical behavior of soil-foundation systems, the accurate prediction of shallow foundation settlements on cohesionless soils is a complex engineering problem. In this study, three new evolutionary-based techniques, including evolutionary polynomial regression (EPR), classical genetic programming (GP), and gene expression programming (GEP), are utilized to obtain more accurate predictive settlement models. The models are developed using a large databank of standard penetration test (SPT)-based case histories. The values obtained from the new models are compared with those of the most precise models that have been previously proposed by researchers. The results show that the new EPR and GP-based models are able to predict the foundation settlement on cohesionless soils under the described conditions with R2 values higher than 87%. The artificial neural networks (ANNs) and genetic programming (GP)-based models obtained from the literature, have R2 values of about 85% and 83%, respectively which are higher than 80% for the GEP-based model. A subsequent comprehensive parametric study is further carried out to evaluate the sensitivity of the foundation settlement to the effective input parameters. The comparison results prove that the new EPR and GP-based models are the most accurate models. In this study, the feasibility of the EPR, GP and GEP approaches in finding solutions for highly nonlinear problems such as settlement of shallow foundations on granular soils is also clearly illustrated. The developed models are quite simple and straightforward and can be used reliably for routine design practice.
R. Jamshidi Chenari, P. Pishgah ,
Volume 12, Issue 2 (4-2014)

In this technical note, a methodology is introduced for reliability calculation of consolidation settlement based on cone penetration test (CPT) data. The present study considers inherent soil variability which influences consolidation settlements results. To proceed reliability analysis, the measured data of a sample corrected cone tip resistance (􀝍􀯧) is detrended using a quadratic trend and the residuals are assumed to be lognormally distributed random field. Realizations of 􀝍􀯧 is generated by using spatial variability of residuals including standard deviation and the scale of fluctuation. The quadratic trend and the generated residuals are then combined to correlate shear and bulk modulus as input consolidation properties for coupled analysis and subsequently consolidation settlement was calculated by using finite difference method adopted in Monte Carlo simulations. The results of reliability analysis are presented describing the range of possible settlements by considering characteristics of uncertainties involved at the particular site. Number of realizations rendering settlements smaller than the allowable settlement must be such that guarantee proper performance or acceptable reliability index.
Khaled Farah, Mounir Ltifi, Tarek Abichou, Hedi Hassis,
Volume 12, Issue 3 (7-2014)

The purpose of this study is to compare the results of different probabilistic methods such as the perturbation method, Stochastic Finite Element Method (SFEM) and Monte Carlo Method. These methods were used to study the convergence of direct approach for slope stability analysis and are developed for a linear soil behavior. In this study, two dimensional random fields are used and both the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Limited Step Length Iteration Method (LSLIM) have been adopted to evaluate the reliability index. The study found that the perturbation method of the second order is easy to apply using the field’s theory because accuracy is reached even with different coefficients of variation of input variables, while the spectral finite element method yields accurate results only for high levels of solution development.
M.a. Rahgozar,
Volume 13, Issue 3 (12-2015)

The interactive effects of adjacent buildings on their seismic performance are not frequently considered in seismic design. The adjacent buildings, however, are interrelated through the soil during seismic ground motions. The seismic energy is redistributed in the neighboring buildings through multiple structure-soil-structure interactions (SSSI). For example, in an area congested with many nearby tall and/or heavy buildings, accounting for the proximity effects of the adjacent buildings is very important. To solve the problem of SSSI successfully, researchers indicate two main research areas where need the most attention: 1) accounting for soil nonlinearity in an efficient way, and 2) spatial analysis of full 3D soil-structure models. In the present study, three-dimensional finite element models of tall buildings on different flexible foundation soils are used to evaluate the extent of cross interaction of adjacent buildings. Soil nonlinearity under cyclic loading is accounted for by Equivalent Linear Method (ELM) as to conduct large parametric studies in the field of seismic soil-structure interaction, the application of ELM is preferred over other alternatives (such as application of complicated constitutive soil models) due to the efficiency and reliability of its results. 15 and 30 story steel structures with pile foundations on two sandy and clayey sites are designed according to modern codes and then subjected to several actual earthquake records scaled to represent the seismicity of the building sites. Results show the cross interaction of adjacent buildings on flexible soils, depending on their proximity, increases dynamic displacements of buildings and reduces their base shears. 

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